Apparently convinced that their victory in Iraq has increased their room for manoeuvre in the Middle East, George W. Bush and his closest advisers have released their so-called “road map” for Middle East peace.
Key points of the plan are summarized in three dimensions:
Phase I calls for ending the violence by Palestinians and Israelis; Israeli withdrawal from Palestinian areas occupied since September 2000; dismantling of Jewish settlements built since March 2001, and laying the ground work for Palestinian elections.
Phase II sets up a Palestinian state with ‘provisional borders.’ The borders are not outlined, but it is likely the temporary state would cover the disconnected autonomy zones that were established in the 1990s and have mostly been reoccupied by Israel.
Phase III tackles the issues that scuttled the last peace effort: final borders, claims over Jerusalem and the fate of millions of Palestinian refugees and their descendants. It doesn’t provide a way to get past disagreements that killed previous peace talks.
At this juncture, it is anybody’s guess whether this plan will make a real difference for Israel and its neighbours. Warren P. Strobel and Aaron Davis writing from Washington say that “The seven page document, delivered to Israeli and Palestinian leaders, encapsulates he land-for-peace formula set out in U.N. Security Council resolutions 36 years ago. Israelis would get peace and security in return for permitting a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza.
“An opportunity now exists to move forward,” President Bush said in a statement. “The United States will do all it can to seize this opportunity.”
The White House believes a window for Middle East peace-making has opened with the toppling of Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq and the empowerment of a new Palestinian prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas, who has pledged to stop terrorist attacks on Israel.
But U.S. officials and private analysts warned that it remains to be seen whether Israelis and Palestinians have the will to end a territorial conflict that has roiled the Middle East for decades, or whether the “road map” will join a long list of failed initiatives.
The concessions and compromises called for in the three-phase plan are certain to be opposed by Palestinian militants and Israeli hard-liners, as well as by their backers in the Arab world and he West.
New terrorist strikes on Israel, such as the bombing in Tel Aviv early Wednesday morning that killed three, could shatter negotiations.
The plan’s details are likely to be debated bitterly and at length. The plan has slipped behind schedule already because of Israel’s elections and the delay in Abbas forming a government. The first phase was to have been completed this month.
Bush released a plan a day after the Palestinian Legislative Council voted to approve Abbas’ Cabinet. That fulfilled a key U.S. demand for a Palestinian government or least partially independent of Yasser Arafat, whom the White House views as discredited by his use of terrorism.
U.S. Ambassador Daniel Kurtzer formally presented the plan – which had been available on the Internet for months – to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
Envoys from the diplomatic quartet that crafted it – the United States, the European Union, the European Union, the United Nations and Russia – presented it to Abbas.
Israel’s public response was muted. A Sharon spokesman hinted that the prime minister would still call for amendments such as those that Israeli officials have been pressuring Washington, unsuccessfully so far, to include in recent weeks.
Palestinian Foreign Minister Nabil Shaath called on Israelis to accept the road map as is. The contrasting perceptions over whether the road map is a finished plan or a starting point for new negotiations go to the heart of the coming disputes over it, said Zakaria al Qaq, the co-director of the Israeli-Palestine Center for Research and Information.
Al Qaq said there were more reasons to be sceptical than hopeful. “Even the people in Palestine and Israel who are standing up and calling for this don’t really believe it will work,” he said. “The road map is a compilation of all the failed plans that came before it.”
Only time will tell whether the United States and its supporters will prevail in this latest effort to bring a semblance of stability to this tortured area of the world.
To be truthful, we are not particularly optimistic about this venture. But, like millions of other people around the world who hope and pray for peace in the world, any effort is better than no effort.
Editorial, The Bahama Journal
