Bjorn Lomborg, the Danish statistics professor whose book The Skeptical Environmentalistput environmentalists on the defensive with its relatively optimistic outlook, has a new and more ambitious project in the pipeline.
He has persuaded a panel of nine of the world’s leading economists to look at 10 of the world’s most serious problems and list their solutions according to value for money.
In a meeting in Copenhagen in May they will debate global issues ranging from climate change to disease, from war to hunger. They will be hoping that the United Nations, governments, and billionaire philanthropists such as Bill Gates will be listening.
The conference will be hosted by the Danish Environmental Assessment Institute, of which Professor Lomborg is the director. He is also an associate professor of statistics at the University of Aarhus in Denmark.
Professor Lomborg infuriated environmentalists worldwide with his 2001 book, in which he attacked what he said was their central tenet -that the condition of the world isdeteriorating.
He said that concerns such as deforestation and the effects of acid rain were exaggerated, and that others such as hunger and disease were on a downward trend. He did not, however, deny that serious problems existed and in London yesterday he launched the Copenhagen Consensus, his initiative to solve them.
He said that prioritisation was key. “The world faces serious problems such as pollution, hunger and disease,” he said. “Which problem should be addressed first? There are 800 million people starving, 2.5 billion people lacking sewerage, and billions affected by climate change. We all wish that there were money enough to solve all problems, but our means are limited. Policymakers prioritise every day, but not always on the best basis. We hope to provide a framework to allow us to make better prioritisations.”
His panel of economists, which includes four Nobel prize winners, will examine the ten world problems and produce a list of the best solutions, on a basis of cost-benefit analysis.
Professor Lomborg said: “Some problems make good television but are not so frightening in reality, such as pesticide residues, or birds caught in oil slicks.
“We need to get our priorities right. A really important problem is indoor air pollution in the developing world, which the World Health Organisation thinks causes two million deaths a year.”
THE LOMBORG CHALLENGES
CLIMATE CHANGE: Burning fossil fuels is pushing up temperatures with potentially disastrous consequences
COMMUNICABLE DISEASES: New diseases such as Aids and Sars rank alongside revived ones such as cholera
CONFLICTS: The number and nature of wars around the world have escalated in the past decade
EDUCATION: Learning is one of the best ways out of poverty but 862 million adults were illiterate in 2000
FINANCIAL INSTABILITY: Insufficient economic data and hidden weaknesses in financial systems pose a challenge
CORRUPTION: The World Bank pinpoints this as the largest single hindrance to economic and social development
HUNGER: The UN says 800 million people starve every day
MIGRATION: An estimated 125 million people are migrants
SANITATION: More than one billion people have no clean drinking water and 2.4 billion lack sanitation
TRADE BARRIERS: Trade barriers and subsidies can considerably damage local and international markets
By Michael McCarthy, Environment Editor, Independent, London
