Hurricane Frances battered the Bahamas this morning with as much as 20 inches of rain and winds as the storm moved slowly toward the east coast of Florida, where it is forecast to hit late tonight.
The storm, which weakened yesterday, was very near Freeport on Grand Bahamas Island, and about 110 miles (180 kilometers) east of West Palm Beach as of 8 a.m. local time, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said in an advisory. Frances was moving west-northwest to northwest at about 6 mph (10 kph).
Wind gusts yesterday reached 70 mph and rain began falling in Florida, where about 2.5 million people have fled the path of the storm. Frances is expected to deliver at least 8 inches (20 centimeters) to 12 inches of rain as it slowly moves across the state.
“This is more a marathon than a sprint,” said Matt Mitchell, a spokesman at the Florida Emergency Operation Center. He said he expects as much as 20 inches in some places.
The storm’s core is forecast reach Florida’s east coast late tonight and slowly track across the state tomorrow, emerging off the west coast of the state late tomorrow or early Monday, said Martin Nelson, a spokesman at the National Hurricane Center. He said in an interview that a lot of rain will remain even after the storm’s eye leaves the state.
Larger, Slower Than Charley
Frances is larger and slower than Hurricane Charley, which slammed into the state three weeks ago and caused billions of dollars in damage. Florida Governor Jeb Bush, who declared a state of emergency earlier this week, said during a press conference today that this might be the largest evacuation in the state’s history.
The hurricane will likely cause salt-water coastal flooding of 4 feet to 6 feet above normal levels and dangerous waves near and to the north of its center. Lake Okeechobee is expected to flood 5 feet above normal levels. There will be additional fresh water flooding from the rain, Nelson said.
“Unlike Charley, this storm has an awful lot of moisture with it,” Federal Emergency Management Agency Director Michael Brown said during a press conference this morning. He added that most deaths in a hurricane come from inland flooding.
Bahamas
As much as 20 inches of rain has hit the Bahamas’ outer islands, Arthur Rolle, the nation’s director of meteorology, said in a phone interview. The Bahamas’ San Salvador Island, Cat Island, Eleuthera and Long Island have been “severely damaged” and Grand Bahama Island and Abaco will soon have damage, he said.
The north side of Grand Bahama Island will likely have coastal storm flooding of 5 to 12 feet above normal tide levels from the center of Hurricane Frances.
Frances packs hurricane-force winds as far as 105 miles from its center. In comparison, Charley had hurricane-force winds 30 miles from its eye. The storm was downgraded in strength last night to a Category 2 hurricane. Category 2 storms, with sustained winds between 96 mph and 110 mph, can cause some structural damage to roofs and doors.
Allstate Corp., St. Paul Travelers Cos., Ace Ltd. and other insurers face billions of dollars in losses from Hurricane Frances. Claims may range from $2 billion to $20 billion, depending on where Frances hits and its wind speed, according to storm modeler Risk Management Solutions Inc.
Hurricane Charley probably will cost the insurance industry $6.8 billion, according to a review last week by Property Claim Services.
Mandatory Evacuations
Seventeen Florida counties had issued mandatory evacuation orders, and 10 counties recommended that residents leave.
A hurricane warning was in effect from Florida City to Flagler Beach, a more than 300-mile stretch along Florida’s east coast. The warning area includes Lake Okeechobee, in the center of the state. A warning means hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours.
A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning extend from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach at the Georgia border.
The National Hurricane Center extended a tropical storm warning north on Florida’s west coast to Englewood. The tropical storm warning is now in effect on the Southern Florida peninsula to south of Florida City and for the middle and upper Keys to the Seven Mile Bridge.
FEMA has activated four urban search and rescue teams, which also responded to the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center, to find victims and will send in more if necessary, Brown said.
Medical Teams
The agency will also send in natural disaster medical assistance teams to treat patients. Brown said these teams treated 2,000 people during Charley and he expects them to assist more people after Frances. He said it would take time for these responders to move in to areas affected by the hurricane.
About 55,201 people have sought refuge in the state’s 81 shelters, which can hold 85,287 people, said Mitchell.
Bush said no money will be diverted from Charley relief operations to Frances.
Tropical Storm Ivan, the ninth tropical system of the Atlantic hurricane season, continues to strengthen in the Atlantic Ocean. It was located about 1,670 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles islands at 5 a.m. New York time, according to the hurricane center.
Ivan has maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph and is expected to strengthen as it continues on a track that would take it southeast of Puerto Rico by early Thursday.
By Heather Burke, Bloomberg
