Flushed with their victory over Saddam Hussein and his murderous regime in Iraq, President Bush and his Secretary of Defence are riding high in public opinion polls. Despite this fact, many Americans remain leery of their doctrine justifying pre-emptive attacks on rogue states deemed potentially harmful to the interests of the United States of America, its allies, assets and interests around the world.
One report reaching us suggests that Americans overwhelmingly consider the war in Iraq a success, and a majority say the victory will stand even if Saddam Hussein remains at large or if the United States fails to unearth chemical or nuclear weapons.
The last item on that list is particularly interesting, suggesting – as it does – that very many Americans are in tacit agreement with President Bush and his defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld.
A part of the explanation for this state of affairs relates directly to the manner in which the war has been presented, particularly as regards the use of precision weapons. This has had the salutary effect of limiting civilian and combatant injury and death. Interesting, too, in the current mindset of the American people is their opposition to a policy of pre-emptive attack like the one President Bush invoked in invading Iraq.
As the story has been elaborated by Adam Nagourney and Janet Elder:
“At home, the fall of Baghdad has fortified President Bush’s political standing. The poll found that 73 percent of Americans approve of his job performance – up from 59 percent the week before the war – and that his approval rating among Democrats was 61 percent. The finding is reminiscent of the spike in popularity Mr. Bush’s father enjoyed for the first few months after the Persian Gulf War of 1991.”
The poll, taken over the weekend, found that for the first time since 2001, a majority of Americans, 62 percent, believe that the nation is winning the war on terrorism. And there has been a sharp drop in the number of people who fear terrorist reprisals attacks in the United States because of the invasion in Iraq. The poll found that 79 percent of respondents approve of Mr. Bush’s handling of Iraq, the most support Mr. Bush has receive on his Iraq policy.
From a political perspective, the Times/CBS News poll pointed to a number of signs, on both the domestic and foreign policy front, of the difficulties the Democratic Party faces as it tries to win the White House and Congress next year. The nation has rallied around its president and is confident about the state of the country, a not-uncommon occurrence at a time of war. But beyond Mr. Bush’s approval rating, a figure that typically gyrates with changing times, the number of Americans who believe the country is heading in the right direction has jumped nearly 20 percentage points since February, to 56 percent. That measure is closely watched by pollsters as a reliable indicator of the re-election prospects of an incumbent.
The Times/CBS News poll found evidence that the Democrats are not in as strong a position as they presumably would like on the issue that they believe could return them to power – the economy. Americans are exactly divided, 42 percent to 42 percent, on which party would do a better job in managing the economy.
And there has been a jump of 7 percentage points since January, to 54 percent, in the number of Americans who said they had confidence in Mr. Bush’s ability to make the right decisions abut the economy. That sentiment was voiced even as respondents expressed concern about the deadline of the economy under Mr. Bush, and even though just 46 percent said they approved of his handling of the economy.
The improving view of Mr. Bush on the economy appears to be a dividend of the overall jump in Americans’ perception of Mr. Bush during the war. Mr. Bush’s political advisers have argued that any voter concerns about the economy would ultimately be outweighed by a perception that Mr. Bush is a strong and grounded president, created by his handling of the war in Iraq.
Mr. Bush’s father, at a similar point after the previous war in Iraq, also enjoyed relatively favourable marks for his management of the economy. That perception, along with his own approval rating – which was even higher than the figure enjoyed today by his son – swiftly deteriorated as images of the war were supplanted by concerns about a troubled economy.
At this juncture, President Bush has every reason to feel as if he has been vindicated. It remains to be seen, however, whether current realities are enough to win for him approval when it counts most in 2004.
Editorial, The Bahama Journal
