Just days after the passage of hurricane Frances through The Bahamas, another major hurricane in the Atlantic, headed toward the country, is causing concern for local forecasters.
Ivan, a category two hurricane at 5 p.m. Monday, could be dangerously close to the archipelago in four days.
Forecaster Arnold King at Nassau Meteorological Office said there was a strong possibility Ivan would affect The Bahamas in some way by the weekend. He pointed out, however, that the storm was still too far away, almost 1,800 miles from Nassau, for an accurate extended forecast to be made. He indicated that by mid-week, the storm’s forecast track would be more reliable.
At 5 p.m. Monday, Hurricane Ivan was centred near latitude 11.6 degrees north and longitude 55.3 degrees west or 305 miles east-southeast of Barbados, or 1740 miles southeast of Nassau. Ivan was moving west-northwest at 22 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds were 105 miles per hour. The hurricane, which was once at category three, was expected to re-strengthen to that category on Tuesday.
Rapid Development
The system formed off the west coast of Africa, near the Cape Verde islands, as a tropical depression around 6 p.m. on Sept. 2. By 5 a.m. on Sept. 3, it had developed into a tropical storm and named Ivan. And at 5 a.m. Sunday, Ivan was recorded as a hurricane by reconnaissance aircraft.
Even as a hurricane, it did not get the attention from meteorologists as hurricane Frances since unlike Frances, Ivan was not threatening land. Now all computer models indicate that the storm is a threat to land and could affect The Bahamas. It is expected to trek over the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday and south of Hispaniola on Thursday.
From there, it is forecasted to cross over Cuba on Friday and skirt the Western Bahamas on Saturday, moving some 55 miles west-southwest of Andros or 120 miles southwest of Nassau. The system is then expected to pass over the Florida Cays, landing somewhere on the Gulf Coast of the U.S. next week. This projected course, however, is based on the hurricane maintaining its present speed and west-northwest to northwest course.
Living in an unusually low latitude
In looking at the low latitude position of the storm, and the speed at which it intensified at that latitude, Mr King said the phenomenon was unusual. Hurricanes seldom form below 10 degrees latitude, as the coriolis force, generated by the spinning of the earth in higher latitudes, acts as a catalyst in setting the weather systems in spiral motion. This force is zero at the equator, therefore hurricanes do not form there. At 10 degrees north of the equator, the coriolis force is relatively weak, compared to 15 north of the equator, a more ideal location for the formation of the tropical cyclones. Mr King said Ivan formed at a low 9.7 degrees latitude.
“Yeah it’s a bit unusual because we don’t normally get hurricanes that low in latitude, especially up to the strength of category three. That’s very unusual,” he said.
He added that the Met Office would be better able to explain the formation of the hurricane below the 10-degree latitude line at the end of the hurricane season (November) after an examination of data from all hurricanes this season.
Still too early to tell
Focussing on the projected path, Mr King said all residents in The Bahamas should prepare for the storm as if were coming here.
“I can’t say it will hit The Bahamas for sure,, but we are likely to get some effects from it. It will be close enough to us to give us at least some rain and some winds.”
He continued, “Over a period of time, the track becomes less accurate, but it does include the entire Bahamas. So it is likely that The Bahamas would be affected by Ivan.”
Mr King also said there was a possibility that the storm could resume a due west course and enter the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica, instead of crossing Cuba. However, he added that that possibility was less likely.
Mindell Small, The Nassau Guardian
