MIAMI: The Atlantic-Caribbean hurricane season opening today promises to be ﾓvery active,ﾒ marked by an above-average number of storms and with high odds of a major hit on the United States, a researcher said yesterday.
Colorado State University Professor William Gray and his research team expect 15 tropical storms, with eight of those growing to hurricane strength during the six-month storm season that runs to November 30. They expect four storms to strengthen into intense hurricanes with sustained winds of 111mph (178 kph) or greater, which can cause extensive damage.
The revised estimate in Grayﾴs final preseason forecast was up from 13 storms and seven hurricanes initially anticipated in his April forecast. The long-term average is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
ﾓWe have adjusted our forecast upward from our early April forecast and now expect tropical cyclone activity to be about 170% of the average seasonal activity,ﾒ Gray said.
There is a 77% chance of an intense hurricane hitting somewhere along the US coastline in 2005, compared with a long-term average of 52%, the researchers said. The islands of the Caribbean and the Bahamas also faced above-average chances of a major hurricane strike, they said.
The revision was based in part on a decreased likelihood of the development of an El Nino, a periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific waters that tends to suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic.
The researchers also cited salinity changes that affect seawater density and in turn change the way warm and cold water circulate in the oceans. Those oscillations tend to come in 40- to 60-year cycles that bring decades of fewer storms followed by decades of more frequent storms.
ﾓWe expect this active tropical cyclone era to continue this year and to likely span the next two or three decades,ﾒ said Philip Klotzbach, another of the researchers.
Last year was also an unusually busy hurricane season, with 15 tropical storms that spawned nine hurricanes in the Atlantic region, causing more than $45bn of devastation. Four of the storms hit Florida. ﾖ
Reuters
